Are you reluctant to let in new information for your betting analysis? Do you only incorporate ideas and info that sustain your preconceptions? If a resounding ‘YES’ is the answer to both the questions, you have a syndrome called conservatism bias.
This bias is a cognitive trap that is quite common among us and affects almost all areas of our lives. Continue reading this blog post to learn about conservatism bias, how it can affect sports gambling including IPL betting and how you can combat it to grow your bankroll.
What is Conservatism Bias?
When people continue to stick to their preconceived notions or traditional views despite contradictory evidence presented to them, it’s called conservatism bias.
Human brains perceive the initially acknowledged information and opinions more meaningful and valuable than what they encounter afterwards. Sometimes, we show nonchalance and other times, we show some patience.
Cricket bettors with conservatism bias usually depend on old, obsolete information instead of considering new information if these contradict their pre-existing views. The conservatism bias clouds bettors’ minds and they find it difficult to understand or process new info.
How Conversatism Bias Affects Bettors’ Decision
Even if we are wrong, we don’t like admitting it. And we are also averse to doing hard work to comprehend and process complex info. We prefer to stick to the sources and information we processed first.
This is because, we don’t want to disturb our mental peace and comfort by acknowledging the differences between the old and the new information.
This irrational behavior prevents bettors from making an accurate approach towards betting on T20 betting exchange apps. The conservatism bias comes under the broader category of cognitive errors that heavily affect the decision-making process in bettors and other people as well.
The First Proven Case of Conservatism Bias
Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman proved conservatism bias in 1974. Those who participated in the study, were given two different bags and asked to choose one of them. One bag had 700 red chips and 300 blue chips and the other contained 300 red chips and 700 blue chips.
Without having any information about these two bags, the chance of choosing any of them was 50% each.
The experimenters chose one of the bags and took out 12 consecutive chips, 8 of which were red and 4 blue. The participants were asked about their guesses on the odds that the experimenters had taken out from the mostly-red chip bag. Subjects showed slight conservatism by updating their guesses that there was 70% chance that they had drawn a predominantly red beg. The assessment was severely flawed. The right answer – there was a 97% chance that the experimenters were drawing chips from the red flag.
The two experimenters theorized that the subjects stuck to their original belief of a 50% probability and showed over-conservatism when expressing their estimates of red bag selection. The researchers named the behavior “Conservatism Bias’.
What Are the Common Symptoms of the Conservatism Bias?
The conservatism bias most frequently affects the currency traders and stock market investors. These people show rigid behavior whenever they get new information projecting an upcoming change in share price. The conservatism bias also applies to traders who choose to go public with their opinions and positions.
There is enough evidence that suggests investors usually underreact to dividends, stock splits and earning announcements. However, conservatism bias is also common among bettors who always stick to the information that confirms their old strategy, especially after a streak of wins.
When bettors integrate new info, those with conservatism bias show slow reaction. They find it difficult to figure out how to include new information into their future betting plans.
How Does Conservatism Bias Affect Cricket Betting?
Conservatism bias heavily and adversely affect cricket bettors’ decision-making process. In T20 betting, odds may change as the game progresses. If a bettor shows overconfidence in his predictions, he will react slowly to changing odds and this may ruin his chance of winning bets.
Cricket bettors with conservatism are slow to react even when there is enough information to contradict their presumption. What is worse, they seek information to rationalize their behavior.
Bettors should hedge their bets to minimize potential losses. For your bankroll growth, you should check all the new information and incorporate them into your strategy if needed. Your success heavily depends on your attitude.
How to Fight against Conservatism Bias?
It is not difficult to combat conservatism bias. You need to be swift and efficient in your action and should have clearer insights into the more complex aspects of cricket betting. Smart and sharp bettors always reassess their bets and never get stuck to one particular method of doing things. Absorbing new information and incorporating them into betting plans are extremely important because nothing is constant in this world. Acknowledge and appreciate changes if these can help you get equipped with improved strategies and success.