Nassim Nicholas Taleb, statistician, risk analyst, former currency trader, and the author of many best-selling books, coined the term “Green Lumber Fallacy” in his book Antigragin: Things That Gain from Disorder in 2012. The term refers to the human tendency of misunderstanding the factors which are not important and which are a key to the decision-making process. The “Green Lumber Fallacy” is called the “Green Lumber Problem” when people focus on the unimportant and wrong factors when trying to guess a future outcome or solve a problem.
If you are a professional bettor and want to improve your betting record, keep reading the blog post. Those who are new to T20 betting will also find the article helpful to them.
The Origin of Green Lumber Problem
How the ‘Green Lumber Fallacy’ originated is pretty fascinating. Taleb was busy reading Jim Paul’s What I Learned Losing A Million Dollars and he chanced on an anecdote about a character named Joe Siegel, one of the best lumber traders in the world.
The person had been trading in a larger volume of lumber stocks than anyone known to Paul. Joe Siegel was highly successful in his business. One day, he told Paul that it was beyond his understanding why people got ready to pay a huge premium for the lumber with green paints.
Paul was surprised. At first, he took it as a joke. Green Lumber does not have a green paint. The term “Green Lumber” refers to freshly cut wood that is not dried yet. Joe Siegal, who has been so successful in lumber trading, does not even know the differences between regular kiln-dried lumber and green lumber. Doesn’t that sound odd?
That day, Paul learned an important lesson. Siegal’s successful trading was based on short-term information including price auction, order flow and other technicalities of trading. He did not think it important to absorb long-term information because he considered those unimportant.
Siegel was only focused on grand ideas, theories and narratives. He did not consider the causes of fluctuating lumber prices important to meet his purposes. He needed only basic trading strategies to apply. He did not even find it important to learn the basic differences between regular lumber and green lumber for successful trading.
Siegel knew everything about lumber trading that other traders and experts considered unimportant. The ‘Character’ Siegel fascinated Taleb so much that he theorized his strategies for success. Taleb called it Green Lumber Fallacy and offered an explanation for such behavior. According to Taleb, the most important thing is simple and easy to see around us. However, it often contradicts our ideas about how things get done.
Green Lumber Fallacy in Cricket Betting
Taleb’s Green Lumber Problem that he astutely explained in his book can help sports gamblers delve deep into sports betting including Kalyan Satta Matka.
The best bettors don’t restrict themselves to only one particular type of betting option, league or sports. Many cricket bettors also bet on the Football World Cup, Wimbledon, T20 World Cup, ODIs, Badminton Tournaments and many others. Not only do they choose different sports, they also bet on different betting marketplaces in the same sport/game. In a word, they are smart bettors and love to taste the water in any league and don’t confine themselves to a particular league or sport.
You will find a contradictory character in “sports handicappers”. These folks are retired sports persons and now guiding new bettors with betting secrets. They were successful in their field and have a good understanding of the game.
However, there are hell-and-heaven differences between playing a sport and betting on the same. Therefore, it’s highly likely that the retired players who now offer expert tips on betting don’t have a clear understanding of how to predict outcomes successfully.
On the contrary, professional bettors might not have knowledge about intricacies of cricket and other sports but they know their job far better than anyone else and that’s the key to their success in betting.
Professional Bettors, Not the Former Players, Know More about Betting
Professional and successful bettors have well-rounded knowledge about line movement, randomness, probability, and other gambling strategies. Many times, these application strategies have nothing to do with sports but make all the differences between inexperienced bettors and expert ones.
Bettors don’t need theories of what strategies will benefit a particular team or what won’t work in their favor. Despite their success, these bettors may be considered ignorant by the standard of knowledge players have. However, they still know many things that these ‘veteran players-turned betting experts’ consider “unimportant”.
This supports the Green Lumber Fallacy that Taleb aptly identifies, describes and explains. Former players don’t make a lot of money on T20 betting exchange apps though they know a lot about the game whereas bettors, who don’t have grand knowledge of cricket, understand the risks, theory of probabilities and many other nuances that help them make a fortune. .